Combat Edge Intelligence

Jutaro Nakao vs Stephen Costello

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

26-21-4Record6-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Jutaro Nakao MMA SchoolTeamSBG Ireland

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jutaro NakaoNow 1533
If they win+12→ 1545
If they lose-12→ 1521
Stephen CostelloNow 1534
If they win+16→ 1550
If they lose-16→ 1518

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.59
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
43%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
45%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
56%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jutaro NakaoStephen Costello
150015501600201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (27%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
14 (54%)
Submission
2 (33%)
5 (19%)
Decision
2 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Stephen Costello66%
Jutaro Nakao 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Costello a 66% favorite over Jutaro Nakao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1533 vs 1534), separated by just 1 points.

Jutaro Nakao enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jutaro Nakao finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Costello 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.