Combat Edge Intelligence

Kai Asakura vs Rinya Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-6-0Record10-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
69"Reach68"
134 lbsWeight136 lbs
Japan Top TeamTeamFreelance

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kai AsakuraNow 1712
If they win+12→ 1724
If they lose-12→ 1700
Rinya NakamuraNow 1710
If they win+16→ 1726
If they lose-16→ 1694

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1606 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
33%
Strike accuracy
55%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.38
52%
Strike defense
67%
0
Takedown avg.
3.72
TBD
Takedown accuracy
90%
50%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
1.65

Trajectory

Kai AsakuraRinya Nakamura
1650170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (62%)
KO/TKO
6 (60%)
3 (14%)
Submission
1 (10%)
5 (24%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Kai Asakura51%
Rinya Nakamura 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kai Asakura a 51% favorite over Rinya Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1712 vs 1710), separated by just 2 points.

Kai Asakura finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.