Kai Kamaka III vs Marcin Held
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-1Record29-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
69"Reach39,5"
145 lbsWeight156 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamAnkos MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1682
If they lose-12→ 1658
If they win+12→ 1684
If they lose-12→ 1660
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kai Kamaka IIIMarcin Held
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kai Kamaka III60%
Marcin Held 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kai Kamaka III a 60% favorite over Marcin Held in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcin Held's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1672), separated by just 2 points.
Kai Kamaka III enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kai Kamaka III finishes 22% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Held 66%.
Kai Kamaka III and Marcin Held share 1 common opponent: Diego Brandao.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.