Kaiwen Li vs Satoru Kitaoka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record45-27-10
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
150 lbsWeight156 lbs
K-1 GymTeamLotus Setagaya
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-16→ 1548
If they win+12→ 1573
If they lose-12→ 1549
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kaiwen LiSatoru Kitaoka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kaiwen Li66%
Satoru Kitaoka 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kaiwen Li a 66% favorite over Satoru Kitaoka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1564 vs 1561), separated by just 3 points.
Kaiwen Li enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Satoru Kitaoka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kaiwen Li finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Satoru Kitaoka 49%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.