Combat Edge Intelligence

Karl Reed vs Zac Pauga

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Karl Reed
us

Karl Reed

5-2-0Light HeavyweightDWCS

1574Solid
Zac Pauga
us

Zac Pauga

“The Ripper”

7-4-0Light HeavyweightXFC

1571Solid

Tale of the tape

5-2-0Record7-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
45,0"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Upstate KarateTeamElevation Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Karl ReedNow 1574
If they win+24→ 1598
If they lose-24→ 1550
Zac PaugaNow 1571
If they win+16→ 1587
If they lose-16→ 1555

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1502 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.04
Sig. strikes / min
4.46
45%
Strike accuracy
63%
3.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.73
39%
Strike defense
59%
1.06
Takedown avg.
0.38
22%
Takedown accuracy
8%
53%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Karl ReedZac Pauga
1550160020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

2 (40%)
KO/TKO
1 (14%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (14%)
3 (60%)
Decision
5 (71%)

Combat Edge model read

Karl Reed66%
Zac Pauga 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Karl Reed a 66% favorite over Zac Pauga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1574 vs 1571), separated by just 3 points.

Karl Reed finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Zac Pauga 29%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.