Combat Edge Intelligence

Karl Williams vs Naoya Ogawa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record7-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
79"ReachTBD
247 lbsWeight253 lbs
American Top Team AtlantaTeamUFO

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Karl WilliamsNow 1594
If they win+16→ 1610
If they lose-16→ 1578
Naoya OgawaNow 1596
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1603 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.68
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
49%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.15
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
56%
Strike defense
TBD
4.20
Takedown avg.
TBD
49%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
100%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.20
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Karl WilliamsNaoya Ogawa
1600165017002005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
2 (29%)
0 (0%)
Submission
5 (71%)
7 (70%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Karl Williams55%
Naoya Ogawa 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Karl Williams a 55% favorite over Naoya Ogawa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Naoya Ogawa's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1594 vs 1596), separated by just 2 points.

Karl Williams enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Naoya Ogawa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Karl Williams finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Naoya Ogawa 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.