Combat Edge Intelligence

Karl Williams vs Ricco Rodriguez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record54-27-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
79"ReachTBD
247 lbsWeight225 lbs
American Top Team AtlantaTeamAmerican Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Karl WilliamsNow 1594
If they win+16→ 1610
If they lose-16→ 1578
Ricco RodriguezNow 1591
If they win+12→ 1603
If they lose-12→ 1579

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1603 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.68
Sig. strikes / min
1.85
49%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.15
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.15
56%
Strike defense
61%
4.20
Takedown avg.
2.30
49%
Takedown accuracy
39%
100%
Takedown defense
41%
0.20
Submission avg.
0.97

Trajectory

Karl WilliamsRicco Rodriguez
1600165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
17 (31%)
0 (0%)
Submission
25 (46%)
7 (70%)
Decision
12 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Karl Williams66%
Ricco Rodriguez 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Karl Williams a 66% favorite over Ricco Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1594 vs 1591), separated by just 3 points.

Karl Williams enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Ricco Rodriguez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Karl Williams finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Ricco Rodriguez 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.