Combat Edge Intelligence

Karl Williams vs Shelton Graves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record11-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
79"Reach40,0"
247 lbsWeight265 lbs
American Top Team AtlantaTeamTop Flight MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Karl WilliamsNow 1594
If they win+16→ 1610
If they lose-16→ 1578
Shelton GravesNow 1591
If they win+16→ 1607
If they lose-16→ 1575

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1603 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.68
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
49%
Strike accuracy
69%
2.15
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.81
56%
Strike defense
33%
4.20
Takedown avg.
4.86
49%
Takedown accuracy
57%
100%
Takedown defense
0%
0.20
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Karl WilliamsShelton Graves
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (9%)
7 (70%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Karl Williams60%
Shelton Graves 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Karl Williams a 60% favorite over Shelton Graves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1594 vs 1591), separated by just 3 points.

Karl Williams enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Karl Williams finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Shelton Graves 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.