Combat Edge Intelligence

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs Nell Ariano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-13-0Record6-0-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'4"
TBDReach-
185 lbsWeight206 lbs
Yoshida DojoTeamPlatinum MMA Training Centre

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kazuhiro NakamuraNow 1635
If they win+12→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1623
Nell ArianoNow 1637
If they win+24→ 1661
If they lose-24→ 1613

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.05
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
39%
Strike accuracy
TBD
23.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
59%
Strike defense
TBD
1.50
Takedown avg.
TBD
20%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
43%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Kazuhiro NakamuraNell Ariano
15501600165020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
4 (67%)
3 (14%)
Submission
0 (0%)
13 (62%)
Decision
2 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Nell Ariano79%
Kazuhiro Nakamura 21%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nell Ariano a 79% favorite over Kazuhiro Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1637), separated by just 2 points.

Nell Ariano enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Kazuhiro Nakamura finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Nell Ariano 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.