Combat Edge Intelligence

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Mike Thomas Brown

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-1-0Record26-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'6"
70"ReachTBD
146 lbsWeight145 lbs
EXFIGHTTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Keiichiro NakamuraNow 1672
If they win+24→ 1696
If they lose-24→ 1648
Mike Thomas BrownNow 1670
If they win+12→ 1682
If they lose-12→ 1658

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1520 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1604 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.22
Sig. strikes / min
2.98
43%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.39
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.45
66%
Strike defense
61%
0
Takedown avg.
3.23
0%
Takedown accuracy
40%
83%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
0.62

Trajectory

Keiichiro NakamuraMike Thomas Brown
1550160016502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (88%)
KO/TKO
5 (19%)
0 (0%)
Submission
13 (50%)
1 (13%)
Decision
8 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Keiichiro Nakamura72%
Mike Thomas Brown 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Keiichiro Nakamura a 72% favorite over Mike Thomas Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1672 vs 1670), separated by just 2 points.

Keiichiro Nakamura enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Mike Thomas Brown enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Keiichiro Nakamura finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Mike Thomas Brown 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.