Keith Jardine vs Zac Pauga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-2Record7-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1586
If they lose-16→ 1554
If they win+16→ 1587
If they lose-16→ 1555
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1683 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Keith JardineZac Pauga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Zac Pauga59%
Keith Jardine 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Zac Pauga a 59% favorite over Keith Jardine in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1570 vs 1571), separated by just 1 points.
Keith Jardine enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Keith Jardine finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Zac Pauga 29%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.