Kenji Arai vs Lorenzo de Nigris
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-15-5Record2-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'7"
TBDReach-
144 lbsWeight146 lbs
PANCRASEismTeamLigorio Top Team
What's at stake
Lorenzo de Nigris is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Kenji Arai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1475
If they lose-11→ 1451
If they win+21→ 1522
If they lose-27→ 1474
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1491 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kenji AraiLorenzo de Nigris
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lorenzo de Nigris72%
Kenji Arai 28%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Lorenzo de Nigris a 72% favorite over Kenji Arai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Lorenzo de Nigris holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1501 to 1462, a 39-point edge.
Kenji Arai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kenji Arai finishes 53% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.