Kenji Arai vs Matteo Martignoni
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-15-5Record3-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
144 lbsWeight145 lbs
PANCRASEismTeamAurora MMA
What's at stake
Matteo Martignoni is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Kenji Arai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1476
If they lose-10→ 1452
If they win+21→ 1533
If they lose-27→ 1485
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1491 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kenji AraiMatteo Martignoni
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matteo Martignoni71%
Kenji Arai 29%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Matteo Martignoni a 71% favorite over Kenji Arai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Matteo Martignoni holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1512 to 1462, a 50-point edge.
Kenji Arai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kenji Arai finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Matteo Martignoni 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.