Combat Edge Intelligence

Kestutis Smirnovas vs Raffael Cerqueira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-8-2Record11-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'3"
TBDReach76"
198 lbsWeight205 lbs
Audra GymTeamCTJ Judo & Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kestutis SmirnovasNow 1631
If they win+12→ 1643
If they lose-12→ 1619
Raffael CerqueiraNow 1628
If they win+16→ 1644
If they lose-16→ 1612

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.61
TBD
Strike accuracy
45%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.88
TBD
Strike defense
37%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
40%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Kestutis SmirnovasRaffael Cerqueira
16501700201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (13%)
KO/TKO
8 (73%)
14 (61%)
Submission
2 (18%)
6 (26%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Raffael Cerqueira54%
Kestutis Smirnovas 46%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Raffael Cerqueira a 54% favorite over Kestutis Smirnovas in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kestutis Smirnovas's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1631 vs 1628), separated by just 3 points.

Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Kestutis Smirnovas finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Raffael Cerqueira 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.