Kevin Haley vs Leonardo Guimaraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-6-0Record15-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
81"Reach73"
195 lbsWeight205 lbs
Nostos MMATeamTata Fight Team
What's at stake
Kevin Haley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1481
If they lose-26→ 1433
If they win+17→ 1449
If they lose-15→ 1417
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1615 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kevin HaleyLeonardo Guimaraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Haley60%
Leonardo Guimaraes 40%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Haley a 60% favorite over Leonardo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Kevin Haley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1459 to 1432, a 27-point edge.
Kevin Haley enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kevin Haley finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Guimaraes 80%.
Kevin Haley carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.