Kevin Holland vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-15-0Record23-10-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'0"
81"Reach76.00
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Phalanx MMA AcademyTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1748
If they lose-12→ 1724
If they win+12→ 1753
If they lose-12→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1740 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kevin HollandRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Holland63%
Rory MacDonald 37%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 63% favorite over Rory MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rory MacDonald's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1736 vs 1741), separated by just 5 points.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kevin Holland finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
Kevin Holland carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.