Combat Edge Intelligence

Kiefer Crosbie vs Matt Dwyer

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record11-9-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'4"
70"Reach44,0"
170 lbsWeight183 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamToshido Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kiefer CrosbieNow 1567
If they win+16→ 1583
If they lose-16→ 1551
Matt DwyerNow 1563
If they win+16→ 1579
If they lose-16→ 1547

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.61
Sig. strikes / min
2.57
52%
Strike accuracy
34%
6.49
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.24
51%
Strike defense
55%
0.69
Takedown avg.
0.44
40%
Takedown accuracy
10%
100%
Takedown defense
60%
0.34
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Kiefer CrosbieMatt Dwyer
15501600202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
9 (82%)
2 (20%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (30%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Kiefer Crosbie52%
Matt Dwyer 48%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Kiefer Crosbie a 52% favorite over Matt Dwyer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1567 vs 1563), separated by just 4 points.

Kiefer Crosbie enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Matt Dwyer enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Kiefer Crosbie finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Matt Dwyer 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.