Combat Edge Intelligence

Krzysztof Jotko vs Luke Rockhold

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-6-0Record16-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
77"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Krzysztof JotkoNow 1743
If they win+12→ 1755
If they lose-12→ 1731
Luke RockholdNow 1742
If they win+16→ 1758
If they lose-16→ 1726

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1610 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.98
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
43%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.68
57%
Strike defense
54%
1.33
Takedown avg.
0.70
40%
Takedown accuracy
29%
82%
Takedown defense
65%
0.07
Submission avg.
1.01

Trajectory

Krzysztof JotkoLuke Rockhold
17502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (28%)
KO/TKO
6 (38%)
2 (7%)
Submission
8 (50%)
19 (66%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Krzysztof Jotko70%
Luke Rockhold 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Krzysztof Jotko a 70% favorite over Luke Rockhold in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1743 vs 1742), separated by just 1 points.

Krzysztof Jotko enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Krzysztof Jotko finishes 34% of wins inside the distance, Luke Rockhold 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.