Lance Gibson Jr. vs Michael Dufort
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record13-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
72"Reach74.00"
185 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gibson Kickboxing & PankrationTeamH2O MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
If they win+16→ 1670
If they lose-16→ 1638
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lance Gibson Jr.Michael Dufort
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lance Gibson Jr.62%
Michael Dufort 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lance Gibson Jr. a 62% favorite over Michael Dufort in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Michael Dufort's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1654), separated by just 2 points.
Michael Dufort enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lance Gibson Jr. finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Michael Dufort 92%.
Michael Dufort carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.