Combat Edge Intelligence

Lance Gibson Jr. vs Thibault Gouti

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-0Record17-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"Reach41,5"
185 lbsWeight158 lbs
Gibson Kickboxing & PankrationTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lance Gibson Jr.Now 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
Thibault GoutiNow 1651
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2
Sig. strikes / min
3.68
42%
Strike accuracy
34%
4.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.64
54%
Strike defense
50%
2
Takedown avg.
1.23
67%
Takedown accuracy
80%
50%
Takedown defense
83%
0
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Lance Gibson Jr.Thibault Gouti
165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
7 (41%)
3 (30%)
Submission
6 (35%)
2 (20%)
Decision
4 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Gibson Jr.71%
Thibault Gouti 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Gibson Jr. a 71% favorite over Thibault Gouti in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1651), separated by just 1 points.

Lance Gibson Jr. finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Thibault Gouti 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.