Combat Edge Intelligence

Lance Lawrence vs Martin Day

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Martin Day
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Martin Day

“The Spartan”

8-7-0FeatherweightCN

1550Solid

Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record8-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach40,5"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
TBDTeamHawaii Elite MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lance LawrenceNow 1555
If they win+16→ 1571
If they lose-16→ 1539
Martin DayNow 1550
If they win+16→ 1566
If they lose-16→ 1534

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.87
Sig. strikes / min
3.97
50%
Strike accuracy
46%
9.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
25%
Strike defense
54%
1
Takedown avg.
0.72
100%
Takedown accuracy
60%
50%
Takedown defense
65%
0
Submission avg.
0.48

Trajectory

Lance LawrenceMartin Day
1550160020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
3 (38%)
5 (63%)
Submission
2 (25%)
2 (25%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Lawrence56%
Martin Day 44%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Lawrence a 56% favorite over Martin Day in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1555 vs 1550), separated by just 5 points.

Martin Day enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Lance Lawrence finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Martin Day 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.