Combat Edge Intelligence

Lance Lawrence vs Tiago Trator

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record22-9-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach70.00
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
TBDTeamTeam Nogueira

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lance LawrenceNow 1555
If they win+16→ 1571
If they lose-16→ 1539
Tiago TratorNow 1550
If they win+24→ 1574
If they lose-24→ 1526

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.87
Sig. strikes / min
3.69
50%
Strike accuracy
36%
9.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.23
25%
Strike defense
60%
1
Takedown avg.
0.63
100%
Takedown accuracy
11%
50%
Takedown defense
33%
0
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Lance LawrenceTiago Trator
155020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
7 (32%)
5 (63%)
Submission
7 (32%)
2 (25%)
Decision
8 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Lawrence58%
Tiago Trator 42%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Lawrence a 58% favorite over Tiago Trator in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1555 vs 1550), separated by just 5 points.

Lance Lawrence finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Tiago Trator 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.