Combat Edge Intelligence

Lara Procopio vs Mariya Agapova

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-2-0Record10-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'6"
TBDReach68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamMMA Science Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lara ProcopioNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598
Mariya AgapovaNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1513 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1604 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.64
Sig. strikes / min
4.43
59%
Strike accuracy
55%
6.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.62
47%
Strike defense
52%
3.15
Takedown avg.
0.55
47%
Takedown accuracy
67%
50%
Takedown defense
45%
0.35
Submission avg.
0.83

Trajectory

Lara ProcopioMariya Agapova
16001650202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (11%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
3 (33%)
Submission
5 (50%)
5 (56%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Lara Procopio57%
Mariya Agapova 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lara Procopio a 57% favorite over Mariya Agapova in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1613), separated by just 1 points.

Lara Procopio enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Mariya Agapova enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Lara Procopio finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Mariya Agapova 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.