Lee Brousseau vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-3-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height-
TBDReach-
204 lbsWeight205 lbs
The Hit SquadTeamTeam Ryano Waterford
What's at stake
Lee Brousseau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Matthew O'Rourke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1510
If they lose-25→ 1462
If they win+25→ 1496
If they lose-23→ 1448
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lee BrousseauMatthew O'Rourke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke66%
Lee Brousseau 34%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 66% favorite over Lee Brousseau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lee Brousseau's way (48%).
Lee Brousseau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1487 to 1471, a 16-point edge.
Lee Brousseau enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lee Brousseau finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.