Leonardo Guimaraes vs Matt Foki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-14-1Record5-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height5'7"
73"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tata Fight TeamTeamTant's Gym
What's at stake
Matt Foki is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1449
If they lose-15→ 1417
If they win+22→ 1480
If they lose-26→ 1432
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1523 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1495 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Leonardo GuimaraesMatt Foki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Leonardo Guimaraes60%
Matt Foki 40%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Leonardo Guimaraes a 60% favorite over Matt Foki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Foki's way (46%).
Matt Foki holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1458 to 1432, a 26-point edge.
Matt Foki enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Leonardo Guimaraes finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Matt Foki 40%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.