Combat Edge Intelligence

Leonardo Guimaraes vs Todd Butler

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

15-14-1Record1-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'1"
73"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight198 lbs
Tata Fight TeamTeamTBD

What's at stake

Todd Butler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Leonardo GuimaraesNow 1432
If they win+17→ 1449
If they lose-15→ 1417
Todd ButlerNow 1458
If they win+22→ 1480
If they lose-26→ 1432

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1523 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Leonardo GuimaraesTodd Butler
140014501998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
8 (53%)
Submission
1 (100%)
3 (20%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Todd Butler63%
Leonardo Guimaraes 37%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Todd Butler a 63% favorite over Leonardo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Todd Butler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1458 to 1432, a 26-point edge.

Leonardo Guimaraes finishes 80% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.