Leonardo Mafra vs Luan Duarte
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-7-0Record14-12-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kings MMATeamTata Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1496
If they lose-25→ 1448
If they win+17→ 1476
If they lose-15→ 1444
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Leonardo MafraLuan Duarte
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte66%
Leonardo Mafra 34%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 66% favorite over Leonardo Mafra in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Leonardo Mafra's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1473 vs 1459), separated by just 14 points.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Leonardo Mafra finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Luan Duarte 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.