Combat Edge Intelligence

Lewis McGrillen vs Tommy Morrisson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-1-0Record11-0-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
68"Reach67.1"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lewis McGrillenNow 1687
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671
Tommy MorrissonNow 1688
If they win+16→ 1704
If they lose-16→ 1672

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1501 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1496 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Lewis McGrillenTommy Morrisson
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (83%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
1 (8%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (8%)
Decision
9 (82%)

Combat Edge model read

Tommy Morrisson60%
Lewis McGrillen 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tommy Morrisson a 60% favorite over Lewis McGrillen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1687 vs 1688), separated by just 1 points.

Lewis McGrillen enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tommy Morrisson enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Lewis McGrillen finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Tommy Morrisson 18%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.