Combat Edge Intelligence

Lloyd Van Dams vs Patrick Vespaziani

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record6-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'7"
TBDReach79"
265 lbsWeight242 lbs
TBDTeamMMA Spirit

What's at stake

Patrick Vespaziani is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Lloyd Van Dams carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lloyd Van DamsNow 1481
If they win+27→ 1508
If they lose-21→ 1460
Patrick VespazianiNow 1529
If they win+14→ 1543
If they lose-18→ 1511

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1620 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Lloyd Van DamsPatrick Vespaziani
150015501600200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
6 (100%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Patrick Vespaziani75%
Lloyd Van Dams 25%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Patrick Vespaziani a 75% favorite over Lloyd Van Dams in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Patrick Vespaziani holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1529 to 1481, a 48-point edge.

Patrick Vespaziani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Patrick Vespaziani 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.