Luan Duarte vs Naoki Matsushita
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-12-0Record12-16-11
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'6"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Tata Fight TeamTeamMB3z
What's at stake
Luan Duarte is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Naoki Matsushita carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1474
If they lose-17→ 1442
If they win+13→ 1445
If they lose-11→ 1421
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luan DuarteNaoki Matsushita
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte75%
Naoki Matsushita 25%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 75% favorite over Naoki Matsushita in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Luan Duarte holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1459 to 1432, a 27-point edge.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Naoki Matsushita 42%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.