Luan Duarte vs Olaf Alfonso
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-12-0Record8-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tata Fight TeamTeamTBD
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1476
If they lose-15→ 1444
If they win+15→ 1487
If they lose-17→ 1455
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luan DuarteOlaf Alfonso
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte75%
Olaf Alfonso 25%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 75% favorite over Olaf Alfonso in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Olaf Alfonso's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1459 vs 1472), separated by just 13 points.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Olaf Alfonso enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Olaf Alfonso 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.