Combat Edge Intelligence

Luca Poclit vs Nick Thompson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-3-0Record38-14-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
73"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamMinnesota Martial Arts Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luca PoclitNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Nick ThompsonNow 1657
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.53
TBD
Strike accuracy
44%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.58
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.52
TBD
Takedown accuracy
100%
TBD
Takedown defense
36%
TBD
Submission avg.
2.28

Trajectory

Luca PoclitNick Thompson
165017001750200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
14 (37%)
6 (60%)
Submission
18 (47%)
3 (30%)
Decision
6 (16%)

Combat Edge model read

Luca Poclit70%
Nick Thompson 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luca Poclit a 70% favorite over Nick Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1657), separated by just 0 points.

Luca Poclit enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Nick Thompson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Luca Poclit finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Nick Thompson 84%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.