Luca Poclit vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record25-11-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
73"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
If they win+12→ 1671
If they lose-12→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luca PoclitTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luca Poclit66%
Tony Ferguson 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Luca Poclit a 66% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tony Ferguson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1659), separated by just 2 points.
Luca Poclit enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Luca Poclit finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Tony Ferguson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.