Lucas Gabriel vs Ryo Chonan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-0Record22-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
74"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Nova Uniao PhuketTeamTribe Tokyo MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655
If they win+12→ 1685
If they lose-12→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lucas GabrielRyo Chonan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Gabriel71%
Ryo Chonan 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Gabriel a 71% favorite over Ryo Chonan in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ryo Chonan's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1671 vs 1673), separated by just 2 points.
Lucas Gabriel enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Ryo Chonan enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Lucas Gabriel finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Chonan 41%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.