Combat Edge Intelligence

Lucas Martins vs Melquizael Costa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record26-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Capital da LutaTeamChute Boxe Joao Emilio

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lucas MartinsNow 1680
If they win+12→ 1692
If they lose-12→ 1668
Melquizael CostaNow 1682
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1670

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.87
Sig. strikes / min
4.38
36%
Strike accuracy
50%
4.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.97
60%
Strike defense
55%
0
Takedown avg.
2
0%
Takedown accuracy
41%
77%
Takedown defense
59%
0.49
Submission avg.
1.09

Trajectory

Lucas MartinsMelquizael Costa
16001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (64%)
KO/TKO
9 (35%)
5 (23%)
Submission
8 (31%)
3 (14%)
Decision
9 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Melquizael Costa66%
Lucas Martins 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Melquizael Costa a 66% favorite over Lucas Martins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1680 vs 1682), separated by just 2 points.

Lucas Martins finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Melquizael Costa 65%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.