Combat Edge Intelligence

Luis Pena vs Yanal Ashmouz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Luis Pena
us

Luis Pena

“Violent Bob Ross”

12-6-0WelterweightAFS

1634Solid

Tale of the tape

12-6-0Record8-2-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'3"Height5'9"
TBDReach68"
161 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top Team SunriseTeamK Dojo Warrior Tribe

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luis PenaNow 1634
If they win+16→ 1650
If they lose-16→ 1618
Yanal AshmouzNow 1635
If they win+24→ 1659
If they lose-24→ 1611

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.66
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
47%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.12
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.54
51%
Strike defense
56%
1.17
Takedown avg.
4.80
33%
Takedown accuracy
50%
48%
Takedown defense
60%
1.17
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Luis PenaYanal Ashmouz
165017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
4 (50%)
5 (42%)
Submission
2 (25%)
4 (33%)
Decision
2 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Yanal Ashmouz60%
Luis Pena 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Yanal Ashmouz a 60% favorite over Luis Pena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1634 vs 1635), separated by just 1 points.

Luis Pena finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Yanal Ashmouz 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.