Combat Edge Intelligence

Luke Jumeau vs Rustam Serbiev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Luke Jumeau
nz

Luke Jumeau

“The Jedi”

13-5-0WelterweightUFC

1537Average

Tale of the tape

13-5-0Record9-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
40.50Reach69"
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Phuket Top TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luke JumeauNow 1537
If they win+24→ 1561
If they lose-24→ 1513
Rustam SerbievNow 1540
If they win+16→ 1556
If they lose-16→ 1524

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.93
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
44%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
58%
Strike defense
TBD
0.25
Takedown avg.
TBD
100%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
87%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Luke JumeauRustam Serbiev
15001550201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
5 (56%)
4 (31%)
Submission
4 (44%)
4 (31%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Rustam Serbiev62%
Luke Jumeau 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rustam Serbiev a 62% favorite over Luke Jumeau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1537 vs 1540), separated by just 3 points.

Luke Jumeau finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Rustam Serbiev 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.