Magomed Mustafaev vs Mateusz Legierski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record14-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach71"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Fight Club AkhmatTeamOctagon Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
If they win+16→ 1711
If they lose-16→ 1679
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Magomed MustafaevMateusz Legierski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mateusz Legierski70%
Magomed Mustafaev 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Mateusz Legierski a 70% favorite over Magomed Mustafaev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Magomed Mustafaev's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1695), separated by just 4 points.
Mateusz Legierski enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Magomed Mustafaev finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mateusz Legierski 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.