Combat Edge Intelligence

Magomed Sulumov vs Willamy Freire

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record26-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight Club AkhmatTeamDragon Fight

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Magomed SulumovNow 1627
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Willamy FreireNow 1625
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.53
TBD
Strike accuracy
37%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.93
TBD
Strike defense
62%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.50
TBD
Takedown accuracy
100%
TBD
Takedown defense
74%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Magomed SulumovWillamy Freire
16001650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
8 (32%)
2 (17%)
Submission
10 (40%)
7 (58%)
Decision
7 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Magomed Sulumov62%
Willamy Freire 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Sulumov a 62% favorite over Willamy Freire in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1627 vs 1625), separated by just 2 points.

Magomed Sulumov finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Willamy Freire 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.