Combat Edge Intelligence

Manny Gamburyan vs Rafael do Nascimento

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-10-0Record12-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'4"
67.00Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team HayastanTeamX-Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Manny GamburyanNow 1634
If they win+16→ 1650
If they lose-16→ 1618
Rafael do NascimentoNow 1635
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-16→ 1619

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.13
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
42%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
56%
Strike defense
TBD
3.26
Takedown avg.
TBD
34%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
69%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.73
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Manny GamburyanRafael do Nascimento
155016001650201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (13%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
7 (47%)
Submission
8 (67%)
6 (40%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael do Nascimento70%
Manny Gamburyan 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael do Nascimento a 70% favorite over Manny Gamburyan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1634 vs 1635), separated by just 1 points.

Manny Gamburyan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rafael do Nascimento enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Manny Gamburyan finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rafael do Nascimento 75%.

Rafael do Nascimento carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.