Manuel Del Valle vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-1-0Record25-11-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
75"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Sevilla Fight CenterTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1681
If they lose-24→ 1633
If they win+12→ 1671
If they lose-12→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1512 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Manuel Del ValleTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Manuel Del Valle71%
Tony Ferguson 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Manuel Del Valle a 71% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tony Ferguson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1659), separated by just 2 points.
Manuel Del Valle enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Manuel Del Valle finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.