Combat Edge Intelligence

Marc Diakiese vs Vicente Vargas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record24-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
73"Reach-
155 lbsWeight147 lbs
Great Britain Top TeamTeamTeam Ludus

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marc DiakieseNow 1641
If they win+12→ 1653
If they lose-12→ 1629
Vicente VargasNow 1642
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.54
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
40%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
53%
Strike defense
TBD
3.29
Takedown avg.
TBD
10%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Marc DiakieseVicente Vargas
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (33%)
KO/TKO
2 (9%)
1 (6%)
Submission
5 (22%)
11 (61%)
Decision
16 (70%)

Combat Edge model read

Vicente Vargas60%
Marc Diakiese 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Vargas a 60% favorite over Marc Diakiese in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1642), separated by just 1 points.

Marc Diakiese finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Vargas 30%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.