Marcelo Aguiar vs Michael Dubois
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-3-1Record15-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach70"
168 lbsWeight170 lbs
Academia BoxeTeamStrike Academy
What's at stake
Michael Dubois is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Marcelo Aguiar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1527
If they lose-23→ 1479
If they win+11→ 1529
If they lose-13→ 1505
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1587 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1499 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcelo AguiarMichael Dubois
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Dubois79%
Marcelo Aguiar 21%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Dubois a 79% favorite over Marcelo Aguiar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Michael Dubois holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1518 to 1502, a 16-point edge.
Marcelo Aguiar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Michael Dubois enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Michael Dubois 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.