Marcelo Aguiar vs Will Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-3-1Record3-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
168 lbsWeight161 lbs
Academia BoxeTeamDerby City MMA
What's at stake
Will Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Marcelo Aguiar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1527
If they lose-23→ 1479
If they win+23→ 1546
If they lose-25→ 1498
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1587 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcelo AguiarWill Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Will Davis70%
Marcelo Aguiar 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Will Davis a 70% favorite over Marcelo Aguiar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Will Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1523 to 1502, a 21-point edge.
Marcelo Aguiar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Will Davis 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.