Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcin Held vs Terrance McKinney

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-10-0Record18-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
39,5"Reach73"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Ankos MMATeamWarrior Camp

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcin HeldNow 1672
If they win+12→ 1684
If they lose-12→ 1660
Terrance McKinneyNow 1674
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.41
Sig. strikes / min
6.53
35%
Strike accuracy
56%
2.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
47%
Strike defense
43%
2.46
Takedown avg.
3.31
47%
Takedown accuracy
0%
38%
Takedown defense
73%
1.31
Submission avg.
2.07

Trajectory

Marcin HeldTerrance McKinney
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (14%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
15 (52%)
Submission
9 (50%)
10 (34%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Terrance McKinney61%
Marcin Held 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Terrance McKinney a 61% favorite over Marcin Held in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1672 vs 1674), separated by just 2 points.

Marcin Held finishes 66% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.