Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcin Tybura vs Will Fleury

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

27-11-0Record17-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
78"Reach77"
247 lbsWeight238 lbs
Ankos MMATeamSBG Ireland

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcin TyburaNow 1721
If they win+12→ 1733
If they lose-12→ 1709
Will FleuryNow 1710
If they win+17→ 1727
If they lose-15→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1720 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.56
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
48%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.26
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
1.30
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
71%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.11
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Marcin TyburaWill Fleury
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (37%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
7 (26%)
Submission
4 (24%)
10 (37%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Will Fleury60%
Marcin Tybura 40%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Will Fleury a 60% favorite over Marcin Tybura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcin Tybura's way (48%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1721 vs 1710), separated by just 11 points.

Marcin Tybura enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Will Fleury enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Marcin Tybura finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Will Fleury 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.