Marcio Alexandre Junior vs Yuki Sasaki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record25-22-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight180 lbs
Astra Fight TeamTeamGrabaka
What's at stake
Yuki Sasaki is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Marcio Alexandre Junior carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1492
If they lose-23→ 1444
If they win+15→ 1503
If they lose-17→ 1471
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1659 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcio Alexandre JuniorYuki Sasaki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Alexandre Junior53%
Yuki Sasaki 47%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Alexandre Junior a 53% favorite over Yuki Sasaki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Yuki Sasaki's way (47%).
Yuki Sasaki holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1488 to 1467, a 21-point edge.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Yuki Sasaki enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Yuki Sasaki 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.