Marcus Buchecha vs Naoya Ogawa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-3-1Record7-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
80"ReachTBD
254 lbsWeight253 lbs
American Top TeamTeamUFO
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1617
If they lose-24→ 1569
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1625 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcus BuchechaNaoya Ogawa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcus Buchecha62%
Naoya Ogawa 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcus Buchecha a 62% favorite over Naoya Ogawa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Naoya Ogawa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1593 vs 1596), separated by just 3 points.
Naoya Ogawa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcus Buchecha finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Naoya Ogawa 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.