Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcus Jones vs Łukasz Brzeski

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-2-0Record9-7-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'6"Height6'2"
TBDReach78"
265 lbsWeight236 lbs
TBDTeamNKSW Holy Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcus JonesNow 1530
If they win+24→ 1554
If they lose-24→ 1506
Łukasz BrzeskiNow 1535
If they win+16→ 1551
If they lose-16→ 1519

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.94
Sig. strikes / min
5.02
53%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.68
59%
Strike defense
55%
8.71
Takedown avg.
0.43
75%
Takedown accuracy
33%
0%
Takedown defense
37%
2.90
Submission avg.
0.43

Trajectory

Marcus JonesŁukasz Brzeski
155016002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (75%)
KO/TKO
5 (56%)
1 (25%)
Submission
2 (22%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Marcus Jones and Łukasz Brzeski within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1530 vs 1535), separated by just 5 points.

Łukasz Brzeski enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Marcus Jones finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Łukasz Brzeski 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.