Marilia Morais vs Shayna Baszler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-1-0Record15-11-0
BantamweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'7"
N/AReachTBD
135 lbsWeight153 lbs
Rasthai TempleTeamUWF USA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+25→ 1547
If they lose-23→ 1499
If they win+12→ 1546
If they lose-12→ 1522
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marilia MoraisShayna Baszler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marilia Morais61%
Shayna Baszler 39%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Marilia Morais a 61% favorite over Shayna Baszler in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shayna Baszler's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1522 vs 1534), separated by just 12 points.
Marilia Morais enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Shayna Baszler enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Marilia Morais finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Shayna Baszler 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.